Bayesian Instinct ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
Do experts form rational beliefs when making split-second, sophisticated judgments? A long literature suggests not: individuals often form prior beliefs from biased sampling and update those beliefs by improperly weighting new information. This paper studies belief formation by professional umpires in Major League Baseball. We show that the decisions of umpires reflect an accurate, probabilistic, and state-specific understanding of their rational expectations—as well as an ability to integrate those prior beliefs in a manner that approximates Bayes rule. Given that umpires have barely a second to form beliefs and make a decision, we conclude that the instincts of professional umpires mimic a sophisticated level of rationality remarkably well. ∗Please direct correspondence to: [email protected]. We thank Jim Andreoni, Dorothy Kronick, Cade Massey, Ken Moon, Alex Rees-Jones, Uri Simonsohn, Joe Simmons, and Dan Stone for comments on this paper. We also thank seminar participants at Stanford, Wharton, Vanderbilt, UCSD, the 2014 Society for Judgment and Decision Making conference, and the 2014 Behavioral Decision Research in Management conference, including, and in addition to, Doug Bernheim, Gabriel Carroll, Isa Chaves, Scott Ganz, Nir Halevy, Sergiu Hart, David Hausman, Jonathan Levav, Neil Malhotra, Max Mishkin, Muriel Niederle, Roger Noll, Justin Rao, Peter Reiss, Al Roth, Charlie Sprenger, Francisco Toro, and Russ VerSteeg, for comments on a related, and now retired, working paper (Green and Daniels, 2015). All errors are our own. †For the most recent version, see: ssrn.com/abstract=2916929
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تاریخ انتشار 2017